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What is Scenario planning?

Scenario planning: Preparing for several possible futures instead of betting on one.

Where Scenario planning fits

Scenario planning is part of Strategy & Decisions in Management. Strategy is choosing where to compete and what to ignore. SWOT, KPIs and stakeholder maps guide decisions; opportunity cost says every yes is a no; sunk costs should not drive choices.

Practical tip

Decide on future value and track it with clear KPIs.

Related terms

SWOT analysis
Reviews strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
KPI
A key number used to track progress toward goals.
Stakeholder
Anyone affected by a company's decisions.
Opportunity cost
The value of the best alternative you give up.
Sunk cost
Money already spent that can't be recovered; it shouldn't drive future choices.
Vision statement
A picture of what a company wants to become in the future.
Competitive advantage
Something that lets a company outperform rivals.
Balanced scorecard
Tracking performance from several perspectives.

Formulas you will use with it

PERT estimateZ-scoreMean (average)Cost performance index

Test yourself

Which term means: “Preparing for several possible futures instead of betting on one.”?

Competitive advantage · KPI · Scenario planning

Answer: Scenario planning

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